SOARS Manuscripts

Adverse weather conditions negatively impact mobility and safety of drivers on roads. In an average year, approximately 21% of U.S. highway crashes are weather-related. Collectively, these crashes result in over 5,300 fatalities each year. Using 2019 weather and traffic data along Colorado Highway 1…

Life on earth is enabled by the warmth and light we receive from the sun. Not all the effects of the sun, however, are beneficial to life. Solar magnetic fields can produce large explosive events in the solar atmosphere, which bombard the earth with harmful levels of particles and radiation. Solar p…

Mountain precipitation is an important product of orographic flow. It is crucial for farmers whose livelihood depends on the water and for hydroelectric uses in mountainous regions. Thus, the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) campaign was conducted to und…

Although severe weather forecasting has improved over time, small rotating thunderstorms, sometimes called miniature supercells, often pose challenges with tracking and issuing tornado warnings. Being smaller than typical supercells, those storms are more difficult to discern on radar, especially at…

Tropical cyclones present grave risks to coastal communities. Strong winds, storm surge, flooding, and heavy rainfall result in billions of dollars of damage to homes, infrastructure, and agricultural resources, as well as injuries and fatalities. Meteorologists use forecast models to predict the ha…

This study investigated how tornado sheltering needs and the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic intersect in relation to human risk perception and intended behavior for tornado threats. Housing types like mobile homes are less likely to maintain structural integrity when facing tornadic w…

Orographic precipitation enhancement is the tendency of mountains to cause clouds to produce more precipitation than they would otherwise, which greatly affects the total rainfall in mountainous regions and plays a major role in flooding and mudslides. Most past studies have examined this enhancemen…

Climate change is influencing the frequency and intensity of heat waves. In the next century, these extreme events are projected to increase in duration, frequency, and intensity. However, these events will not occur uniformly in space and time. This project's early stages focused on looking at heat…

This research focused on analyzing rainfall events over the western side of the island of Puerto Rico. We hypothesized that rainfall location over the western side of the small Caribbean island is mainly influenced by the confluence of sea breeze and predominant winds, interacting across complex ter…

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) endanger satellites, disrupt air traffic over the polar regions and high frequency radio communication.The capacity to predict SEP events on Earth ahead of time can lead to the preservation of important space and aeronautical assets as well as well as protection for …

With the substantial use of fossil fuels as a source of energy, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased significantly. Much of this anthropogenic carbon has been absorbed into the ocean, forcing a chemical reaction with water that culminates in the acidification of the oc…

Orographic precipitation is an important source of water for parts of the world. However, many factors affecting orographic precipitation are not well understood. This study uses modeling to investigate natural sensitivities of orographic precipitation in producing snow and in its spatial distributi…

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was created to improve weather prediction models and thus make weather forecasts more accurate. Ensuring that people have accurate and timely information about upcoming weather events is critical to ensuring human health and safety. Although YOPP focuses specifica…

The goal of this research is to improve predictions of rapid intensification (RI) in tropical cyclones (TCs) using a statistical algorithm. Forecasting RI in TCs is notoriously difficult because even in generally favorable conditions (e.g., high column water vapor, low vertical wind shear and high s…

Land and sea breeze circulations are induced by large temperature contrasts along coastlines. In Puerto Rico, a relatively small Caribbean island with a prolonged mountain range and completely surrounded by water, sea breezes are often present. This phenomenon—along with terrain and other factors—af…

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is the measurement of solar energy reaching the earth and is critical for understanding the Earth's radiation budget. Measuring TSI accurately is best done from space, but space borne platforms are expensive, short lived, and difficult to calibrate. To alleviate some of …

Climate change is influencing the frequency and intensity of heat waves. In the next century, these extreme events are projected to increase in duration, frequency, and intensity, but these events will not occur uniformly in space and time. This project investigates heat waves using data from observ…

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been shown to have varying precipitation forecasting skill depending on the dominant weather regime. Specifically, NWP precipitation forecasts are generally more accurate under the equilibrium (synoptic) regime compared to the non-equilibrium (mesoscale…

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) endanger satellites and astronauts in orbit and can disrupt air traffic and spaceflight communication, among other effects. Therefore, the ability to forecast these events in advance is vital, both, economically, and for the safety of air and space-faring passengers.…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) nationwide Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) Ambassador™ initiative affords each individual National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) the ability to recruit and work closely with WRN Ambassadors in their local County Warning Ar…

Surface temperature measurements since the mid-20thcentury have revealed a diurnally asymmetric global warming trend, with nighttime minimum temperatures increasing faster than daily maxima. The result is an overall decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR), which has implications for agricult…

The summer-time American Monsoon region experiences large variations in precipitation, leading to significant impacts on hydrology. These fluctuations are poorly represented in climate models, making it challenging for predicting future changes and enforcing countermeasures. The project analyzed the…

Volcanic eruptions can have a major influence on the Earth system. Aerosols, gas molecules, and fine ash particles from large explosive eruptions can remain in the stratosphere for months to years, decreasing incoming solar radiation and causing Earth's surface to cool. Eruption records reflect temp…

The atmospheric processes involved in a tropical cyclone are affected by topographical factors during and after landfall. Interactions with land are capable of changing the tropical cyclone's structure, behavior, and impact on the landmass. However, one of today's forecasting problems is that comput…

The ionosphere is the region embedded in Earth's upper atmosphere that presents a high concentration of electrons and ionized atoms. This ionospheric plasma scales more than 1000 km in altitude and is highly variable (spatially and temporally) from solar ionizing flux, space weather conditions, and …