SOARS Manuscripts

In May 2023, the National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) produced real-time, 204-h, 10-member ensemble forecasts with an FV3-based numerical weather prediction model. These forecasts had 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (CONUS) …

The impact of smoke and cloud cover is known to impact atmospheric variables, like temperature. However, the impact on ecosystem function, such as photosynthesis, is not well understood or been investigated as thoroughly. Photosynthesis is a critical process that drives the energy budget on Earth. T…

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occasionally occur during the winter time in the Northern Hemisphere. These events disrupt the polar vortex at the stratospheric level by reversing wind direction and pushing colder air further south. Because the atmospheric column is interconnected, we see effec…

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring intense and prolonged periods of winter precipitation to the U.S. west coast, resulting in 84% of flood damages to the region and $1 billion in damages every year. Therefore, improving AR forecasts is essential to better predict where they may land and their precipitat…

Indigenous communities have been observing climate phenomena and cultivating a deep understanding of their environment for centuries before the field of western climate science emerged. To understand how coastal communities and environments will respond to a warming climate, it is essential to learn…

The arid and semiarid region of the southwest United States is at risk of increasing frequency and intensity of hydroclimate extreme events, such as wildfires, heat waves, and droughts, as global warming continues. A previous study identified discrepancies in humidity trends between climate models a…

Tropical cyclone (TC) observations are difficult to achieve as they develop over the oceans and at high altitudes. However, accurate observations are necessary to improve forecasts, issue early warnings, and refine weather prediction models. A novel remote-sensing technique called Polarimetric Radio…

Wildfires in the western United States are increasing in intensity and frequency, with 61% of documented wildfires having occurred since the year 2000 in a record dating back to 1950. Research supports that this trend is largely attributable to climate change and increased urbanization. Consequently…

While atmospheric rivers (ARs) play an important role in the hydrological cycle and are significant sources of water for the North American west coast, they can also bring extreme damage through heavy rain, flooding, and mudslides. Both ARs and the meteorological impacts of ARs are expected to becom…

Every year in May, NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Experimental Forecast Program (EFP), under the guidance of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), conducts the Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE). Scientists use the SFE to accelerate the transfer of …

Within the field of atmospheric science, many investigate the effects of climate change in a way that rarely focuses on Indigenous communities. Many discussions focus on the long-term global impacts of climate change and their effects on the ecological well-being of this planet. Still, there are com…

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a warm, dry layer ($\sim800-500$ mb), significantly impacts tropical storms. Traditional infrared (IR) sensing is limited by clouds. This study uses Radio Occultation (RO) to examine the temperature and dewpoint profile transition between the SAL and convective environme…

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are key sources of subseasonal to seasonal variability, influencing tropical and extratropical weather predictability. While ENSO is traditionally linked to seasonal forecasts, recent work highlights its impact on monthly ti…

Accurately modeling moisture flux (MF) is crucial as it affects various atmospheric processes, including cloud and precipitation formation. However, current climate models struggle with representing MF due to computational challenges arising from the required finer grid resolution. As an alternative…

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is subject to seasonal variability that remains difficult to predict, partly due to poorly understood climate modes such as the Atlantic Niño (AN) — a pattern of significant sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean that peaks durin…

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are some of the most dangerous weather systems we face on Earth. Given their potentially devastating impacts, improving our understanding of TC behavior is necessary to minimize future casualties and losses. However, the rate at which TCs intensify is not fully understood and…

This research project focuses on the comparison of radio occultation (RO) soundings to dropsondes and forecast models in an intense hurricane. We did a case study on Hurricane Ian (2022) comparing the vertical temperature profiles of the three measurements. COSMIC consists of 6 satellites in low Ear…

Wildfires emit large quantities of fine particulate matter (PM?.?) that degrade air quality across wide areas, yet research-grade Federal Equivalent Method (FEM) monitoring networks remain sparse relative to the scale of wildfire impacts. Low-cost sensors such as PurpleAir (PA) offer broader spatial…

Wildland fire seasons have tripled in length, with 84% of fires between 1992-2012 being human-caused, yet a consistent set of fire weather verification metrics remains absent across the United States. This study addresses that gap by developing a use case within the METplus Model Evaluation Tools fr…

Fire responders and local authorities face significant challenges when dealing with extreme wildfires. These fires are unpredictable and exhibit varying spread rates and plume structures depending on whether the fire regime is plume-driven or wind-driven. To better predict fire spread in these uncer…

In May 2023, the National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) produced real-time, 204-h, 10-member ensemble forecasts with an FV3-based numerical weather prediction model. These forecasts had 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (CONUS) …

Our Sun is one of the most thermodynamically and magnetically active places in the solar system, with plasma constantly churning and twisting throughout the many layers of the star. This moving plasma has extreme magnetic properties that occasionally cause eruptions, the most powerful of which can e…

Predicting summer precipitation in the Southwest United States remains a challenging but critical task, particularly given the region's vulnerability to drought and water resource pressures. This study evaluated the ability of machine learning methods -- specifically linear regression and statistica…

Space weather coronagraphs are an important tool for observing and predicting space weather phenomena like coronal mass ejections. Space weather has the potential to disrupt life on Earth by damaging power infrastructure, pipelines, railroads, and radio communication. Methods of accurately assessing…

The Antarctic region, characterized by its ice sheet and sensitive climate, plays a crucial role in global climate dynamics and sea-level rise. Understanding its climate variability is essential. In this study, we investigate the  surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and …