SOARS Manuscripts

The arid and semiarid region of the southwest United States is at risk of increasing frequency and intensity of hydroclimate extreme events, such as wildfires, heat waves, and droughts, as global warming continues. A previous study identified discrepancies in humidity trends between climate models a…

Every year in May, NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Experimental Forecast Program (EFP), under the guidance of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), conducts the Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE). Scientists use the SFE to accelerate the transfer of …

While atmospheric rivers (ARs) play an important role in the hydrological cycle and are significant sources of water for the North American west coast, they can also bring extreme damage through heavy rain, flooding, and mudslides. Both ARs and the meteorological impacts of ARs are expected to becom…

Tropical cyclone (TC) observations are difficult to achieve as they develop over the oceans and at high altitudes. However, accurate observations are necessary to improve forecasts, issue early warnings, and refine weather prediction models. A novel remote-sensing technique called Polarimetric Radio…

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring intense and prolonged periods of winter precipitation to the U.S. west coast, resulting in 84% of flood damages to the region and $1 billion in damages every year. Therefore, improving AR forecasts is essential to better predict where they may land and their precipitat…

Within the field of atmospheric science, many investigate the effects of climate change in a way that rarely focuses on Indigenous communities. Many discussions focus on the long-term global impacts of climate change and their effects on the ecological well-being of this planet. Still, there are com…

Wildfires in the western United States are increasing in intensity and frequency, with 61% of documented wildfires having occurred since the year 2000 in a record dating back to 1950. Research supports that this trend is largely attributable to climate change and increased urbanization. Consequently…

As the Arctic warms, rain-on-snow (ROS) events are likely to become more common and increase in severity. While past research has highlighted the impacts of ROS events over land, such as impacts on reindeer herding, the frequency, characteristics, and impacts of ROS events over the Arctic Ocean are …

In May 2023, the National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) produced real-time, 204-h, 10-member ensemble forecasts with an FV3-based numerical weather prediction model. These forecasts had 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (CONUS) …

Indigenous communities have been observing climate phenomena and cultivating a deep understanding of their environment for centuries before the field of western climate science emerged. To understand how coastal communities and environments will respond to a warming climate, it is essential to learn…

Hurricanes are among the most impactful storms in the world, leading to the investment of many resources to improve hurricane forecasting. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on improving hurricane intensity forecasts, which are often regarded as one of the biggest challenges in meteo…

The Antarctic region, characterized by its ice sheet and sensitive climate, plays a crucial role in global climate dynamics and sea-level rise. Understanding its climate variability is essential. In this study, we investigate the  surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and …

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are key sources of subseasonal to seasonal variability, influencing tropical and extratropical weather predictability. While ENSO is traditionally linked to seasonal forecasts, recent work highlights its impact on monthly ti…

Wildland fire seasons have tripled in length, with 84% of fires between 1992-2012 being human-caused, yet a consistent set of fire weather verification metrics remains absent across the United States. This study addresses that gap by developing a use case within the METplus Model Evaluation Tools fr…

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a warm, dry layer ($\sim800-500$ mb), significantly impacts tropical storms. Traditional infrared (IR) sensing is limited by clouds. This study uses Radio Occultation (RO) to examine the temperature and dewpoint profile transition between the SAL and convective environme…

Severe thunderstorms are almost always associated with lightning and frequently occur throughout the continental U.S. The threat of lightning increases due to the randomness of a strike, making forecasting lightning difficult, which is why this study examines a possibly more effective way to forecas…

Accurately modeling moisture flux (MF) is crucial as it affects various atmospheric processes, including cloud and precipitation formation. However, current climate models struggle with representing MF due to computational challenges arising from the required finer grid resolution. As an alternative…

Fire responders and local authorities face significant challenges when dealing with extreme wildfires. These fires are unpredictable and exhibit varying spread rates and plume structures depending on whether the fire regime is plume-driven or wind-driven. To better predict fire spread in these uncer…

Tropospheric ozone has adverse human and ecological health impacts, making it one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) under the Clean Air Act (CAA). The objective of this study is to assess how the Global Monitoring Laboratory's aircraft ozo…

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is subject to seasonal variability that remains difficult to predict, partly due to poorly understood climate modes such as the Atlantic Niño (AN) — a pattern of significant sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean that peaks durin…

In May 2023, the National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) produced real-time, 204-h, 10-member ensemble forecasts with an FV3-based numerical weather prediction model. These forecasts had 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (CONUS) …

Weather-related vehicle crashes represent a significant public safety burden in the United States, accounting for 21% of all crashes and 16% of all fatal crashes, with over 1.2 million yearly incidents and more than 5,300 casualties recorded annually between 2007 and 2016 -- the majority occurring o…

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are some of the most dangerous weather systems we face on Earth. Given their potentially devastating impacts, improving our understanding of TC behavior is necessary to minimize future casualties and losses. However, the rate at which TCs intensify is not fully understood and…

Our Sun is one of the most thermodynamically and magnetically active places in the solar system, with plasma constantly churning and twisting throughout the many layers of the star. This moving plasma has extreme magnetic properties that occasionally cause eruptions, the most powerful of which can e…

The ocean absorbs roughly one-third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions annually, providing a critical but imperfect buffer against climate change with significant consequences for marine ecosystems. This study investigates the role of internal climate variability in shaping the ocean's anthropogenic car…