SOARS Manuscripts

As Earth continues to warm, the expectation is that major hurricanes will likely become more frequent. Scientists are challenged to understand intensifying complex storms to mitigate impending disasters. Remote-sensing instruments have been developed to aid in deciphering storm microphysics and kine…

Recent studies have investigated spiral gravity waves in tropical cyclones (TCs), where similar wave-like features have been observed in the upper outflow layer. Among these are non-propagating waves (NPWs), which are defined in this study as wave-like features that resemble gravity waves but lack t…

Probabilistic information in forecasts was long thought to be too confusing for the public and other key stakeholders. As such, it was not included in many forecasts. However, research over the last twenty years has shown that including probabilistic information increases trust and understanding in …

Accurate predictions for tropical cyclones (TCs) are crucial for mitigating their negative impacts. This is especially true when storms undergo rapid intensification (RI) over the open ocean, where the upper layers can become stably stratified under freshwater input from rivers or precipitation. The…

Hurricane Maria was a very destructive hurricane that devastated the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico between September 15-30, 2017. With $91.6 billion in damages and 2,975 fatalities, it is the costliest and deadliest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico. Due to the devastation of this storm, t…

Across North America, hailstorms are responsible for at least $10 billion in annual damage. This cost is expected to increase as housing and commercial developments expand in hail-prone areas. To fill the current gaps in hail science, the In-situ Collaborative Experiment for the Collection of Hail i…

Differentiating between the two recently identified types of Atlantic Niño (AN) – Central (CAN) and Eastern (EAN) Atlantic Niño – which have distinct patterns and impact on the tropics, is essential to understand the sources of biases in Earth System Models related to the AN. Earth System Models exh…

The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe and this trend is expected to continue going forward. Therefore, it is imperative to study the weather patterns of the Arctic. One important component of the Arctic system is the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer. While regional and forecast mo…

In May of 2009, an ice jam caused a flood in central Alaska. Local member interviews from Project Jukebox noted how the flood rapidly changed the landscapes of Tanana and Fort Yukon. Moose and fish populations had decreased over time, and members believed that with the flood there would be a repleni…

Geomagnetic storms can have a range of potential impacts from full power-grid outages to fluctuations in aerospace vehicle navigations with enhanced satellite drag. The Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) is a model that simulates and outputs variables from the…

Winter hazards can have a large impact on road conditions and vehicle crashes. Multiple-vehicle crashes, or "pileups," are more likely to occur in poor road conditions. Heavy snowfall, such as Lake Effect Snow (LES), can severely limit visibility, making it difficult for drivers to see other vehicle…

Troposheric ozone is a harmful greenhouse gas for human and ecosystem health, so accurately depicting its concentration using models is an important step in understanding global ozone patterns and trends. In this project, we question if an updated record of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument/Microwave …

Weather is one of the greatest hazards in aviation, responsible for over 50% of aircraft-related incidents (Cao et al. 2014). One of the most common weather-related hazards is heavy rain, which can lead to aquaplaning due to standing water. Across different types of runway pavements, the minimum amo…

Microphysical schemes within atmospheric models quantify the properties and dynamics of cloud systems, and the parametrization of these schemes heavily affect the output of these models. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme is a relatively new microphysical scheme that, unlike other schemes…

The Arctic Ocean may be acting as a significant accumulation region for microplastics (MPs), those measuring less than 5 mm in diameter. Previous studies have found that the concentration of MPs in Arctic sea ice is significantly higher than in the underlying Arctic Ocean, by at least an order of ma…

Understanding regional water cycle trends is crucial for water resources management in the drought-prone western U.S., but predicting future precipitation changes remains a challenge. The Holocene (~11.7 ka to present) provides a case study for investigating the forcing mechanisms controlling tempor…

Nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO + NO2), reactive nitrogen species (NOy= NO+ NO2+ HNO3+N2O5+ ClONO2+PAN+...), and ozone (O3) are key atmospheric pollutants that play a central role in boundary layer chemistry. They drive processes such as ozone production and secondary aerosol formation, significantly influe…

Hurricane Ian made landfall in Southwest Florida on September 28, 2022, at a Category 4 intensity. It caused the deaths of 150 individuals, making it the deadliest in the state in nearly a century, as well as causing $112 billion in damage, making it the costliest in Florida state history and third …

Observed atmospheric humidity trends since 1980 disagree with global climate models in arid and semi-arid regions of the world (Simpson et al., 2024). Specifically, model simulations depict an increase in humidity, which has not been observed. This discrepancy is present in both climate models of th…

Extreme weather events like heat waves and flooding are increasing in intensity and frequency as weather on the multi-decadal scale becomes warmer. Understanding the changing weather regime and associated impacts can greatly aid rural and agricultural islands like Hawai'i, which experience limited a…

As the Arctic warms, rain-on-snow (ROS) events are likely to become more common and increase in severity. While past research has highlighted the impacts of ROS events over land, such as impacts on reindeer herding, the frequency, characteristics, and impacts of ROS events over the Arctic Ocean are …

In May 2023, the National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) produced real-time, 204-h, 10-member ensemble forecasts with an FV3-based numerical weather prediction model. These forecasts had 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (CONUS) …

The impact of smoke and cloud cover is known to impact atmospheric variables, like temperature. However, the impact on ecosystem function, such as photosynthesis, is not well understood or been investigated as thoroughly. Photosynthesis is a critical process that drives the energy budget on Earth. T…

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occasionally occur during the winter time in the Northern Hemisphere. These events disrupt the polar vortex at the stratospheric level by reversing wind direction and pushing colder air further south. Because the atmospheric column is interconnected, we see effec…

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring intense and prolonged periods of winter precipitation to the U.S. west coast, resulting in 84% of flood damages to the region and $1 billion in damages every year. Therefore, improving AR forecasts is essential to better predict where they may land and their precipitat…